Sunday, August 7, 2016

Dinosaurs and Predictive Models

I spent yesterday morning and evening with my members of my Christian family.  A morning drive included dreary eyes and me, almost half asleep, trying to answer the question from one of John Piper's CDs "Do you enjoy being with your Christian family?"  If the answer was, "No", he said perhaps you need to ask yourself two other questions: 1)  Do you even know any real Christians? and 2)  If you do know Christians, what does it say about you if you do not enjoy being with a people that embodies the likeness of Christ?

I can say that I love my Christian family a ton so fortunately, I did not have to spend my morning brain muscles, while half awake trying to answer the next two questions.

On the ride home from Moss Landing, a fellow brother and I discussed how people can take the facts before them, mix them with their current understanding and somehow create an explanation that is completely off base.  In this case, the people of the time, expected a Savior as predicted by Isiah almost 500 years prior to come to conquer the Roman people.  That was based on human understanding.  But Jesus, then came, almost in ridiculousness, with such a radically different form than expected.  Based on God's understanding which points to the limitations of the mere mortal, the limitations of the human mind.  It points to how small we think and can comprehend.  Jesus came and conquered something entirely unexpected that no one could have ever predicted: death.

Jesus has taken everything I have known in my life and completely flipped the script on me.  All of a sudden, what I thought made me strong, suddenly made me weak.  What I thought was secure has suddenly become temporal and fleeting.  The people I thought I was saving, I was actually hurting.  Or more importantly, when I thought I could save others, I discovered it was really me that needed to be saved.  While I thought it was everyone else that needed to be fixed, I happened to be what was wrong with the world.

What have I learned from this in my life?  Unfortunately, I have learned that I cannot rely on my own understanding.  Why?  Because my own understanding can completely change over time.

When I was young, there used to be 9 planets.  Now, all of a sudden, there are only 8 planets.  Pluto somehow got re categorized.

Take a look at the models of the atom.  These have changed over time from the Bohr Model to Quantum Physics (see www.everythingmaths.co.za) to who knows what in the future.  So are models useless?  No, a model is an inaccurate representation of something, anything, that by design limits the parameters involved and oversimplifies the object in question in order to make a predication.  In other words, for models of the atom, we can used this oversimplification to make predictions about the near future (ie predictions within proximity of time and space).

Take this linear predictor...


Close to the dot, the line actually predicts fairly well.  However, the farther you get away from the dot, the worse the predictions become.  Now, look from the following perspective...


The prediction is now completely off and the oversimplification of the line becomes readily apparent.  It is clear that the other parameters cannot be ignored.

So what does all of this have to do with dinosaurs?  My argument is that so called dinosaurs existed so long ago that their existence to me is completely in question.  A radical view, I know.  But nevertheless, I probably would have been the kid in class who questioned whether the Earth was actually flat, when all of my classmates knew it to be true.  Simply because all of the facts pointed to it.  And, everyone else believed it.

The models for dating may include carbon dating or counting tree rings or counting layers of the Earth's surface.  However, these models are only accurate where there is not a catastrophic event.  Or in other words, these models are only accurate where the parameters missing within the model of prediction do not have a large impact on the prediction itself.

The Clay Math institute, will give one million dollars to someone who solves the Navier Stokes equations which represent solving a fluid dynamics problem to predict air turbulence.  Today's, air planes typically wait two minutes between flights because no one can predict the turbulence in the air.  So, somehow, I am supposed to believe that we humans can predict something that happened thousands of years ago, yet we can't even describe two minutes of how wind will work.  Our weather prediction for tomorrow is only 50% accurate.  The truth about the wind is that no one knows from where it comes, when it will come or where it will go (spiritual reference intended).

According to  en.wikipedia.org, Lascaux cave paintings are over 17,000 years old.  I remember being told that humans worshiped animals and would paint on the cave walls so that they could encourage the gods to allow successful hunts.  But, with me the simple story is just as good.  Kids discovered that they could draw.  And kids do what kids do.  They draw all over the walls, the couches, everything.  Even when you tell them over and over not to.  Why would this not apply to an old civilization?  I mean come on.  Take the modern day man.  He goes to work.  He comes home exhausted and is stereo typically known for being the lazy husband who doesn't want to do anything but watch TV or play video games on the couch.  Now, you are trying to tell me that the ancient man, with the same makeup all of a sudden came home after hunting large animals and he wanted to draw instead of rest?  I'm sorry.  Men like to hunt.  Kids like to draw.  Pretty clear to me.

So in the end, how do I explain intricate sets of bones that appear to fit perfectly together and form the bone structure of what we know as dinosaurs.  Well, I don't.  The story is great.  It is believable.  But somehow, with a million other possible explanations that come up within a matter of minutes (ask a few teenagers to come up with some theories), I somehow just don't completely believe that dinosaurs ever existed.